Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Bayesian uncertainty analysis represents a powerful statistical framework that integrates prior knowledge with observed measurement data to quantify uncertainty in a consistent probabilistic manner.

First, we need to estimate the pre-test probability that asymptomatic Massachusetts residents have Covid-19. We know that in the state approximately 2% of all tests for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that ...

Don’t worry, a little Bayesian analysis won’t hurt you. By Siobhan Roberts There is a statistician’s rejoinder — sometimes offered as wry criticism, sometimes as honest advice — that could hardly be a ...

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...