That's lower than the statistical bias of the polls in 2016 and 2020, which underestimated Trump by 3.2 and 4.1 points, ...
According to pollster Nate Silver 's forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris now has a 50 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to former President Donald Trump 's 49.6 percent. It also notes ...
President Joe Biden pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s latest average of polls with the president leading in the last five national polls measured. Biden posted ...
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.
Polls are almost always at least a bit off. Some of that is due to imperfect assumptions about what the likely voter ...
How can two polls say two different things? And can you even trust polls, anyway? Here at 538, we cover polls year-round, so we'd like to share with you some tips we've learned over the years ...
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.
Despite pulling into the lead in two recent polls, Kari Lake still trails Ruben Gallego in polling averages and betting odds.